Chicago Fire has never shied away from devastating tragedy. Since the loss of Leslie Shay in Season 3, the constant threat of a fatal outcome has loomed over Firehouse 51, a stark reminder of the dangerous world the firefighters inhabit. Every season brings its own set of cliffhangers, heart-stopping rescues, and gut-wrenching farewells. Most recently, fans were left reeling from a sudden, non-firefighter casualty that changed the dynamic of the house forever: the tragic passing of Monica Pascal, the wife of Chief Dom Pascal.
But in the world of Chicago Fire, one tragedy only sets the stage for the next. While Monica’s death was a pivotal moment of a recent season, the speculation is already turning to who from the main firehouse crew could be next to face a deadly peril. We’ve analyzed the promos, read the fan theories, and studied the show’s classic “death tropes” to make an informed, albeit heartbreaking, prediction.
Part One: The Death We Saw Coming (In Hindsight)
For a highly anticipated episode, the question wasn’t if someone would die, but who. The clues for Monica Pascal’s tragic car accident, which viewers witnessed, were laid out with classic Chicago Fire foreshadowing. Here’s a breakdown of the specific narrative ‘death anvils’ the writers dropped:
The Anniversary Trap 💍
The most obvious and potent clue was the focus on Chief Pascal’s and Monica’s upcoming wedding anniversary. In television, particularly in shows where characters face constant danger, any time a character makes significant, happy, future-focused plans—like an anniversary dinner, a retirement discussion, or a planned trip—it’s a massive red flag. The episode centered heavily on Pascal struggling to find the right gift, and the couple making final, tender plans for their special night. This trope, known in some fan circles as the “Doomed Happiness Theory,” is a classic technique to maximize the emotional impact of a character’s demise.
The “Visitor’s Curse” 🏠
Monica made an unannounced, casual stop by the firehouse to see her husband. While a visit might seem innocuous, it often serves to ground a secondary character in the primary setting just before tragedy strikes, ensuring that the main cast has a recent, personal memory of the victim. Her conversation with Mouch, where she borrowed her sister’s watch—a small, personal detail—made her passing more impactful by connecting her directly to the firehouse family moments before the fatal call came in.
Violet’s Traumatic Reaction 😭
The episode promo showed Paramedic Violet Mikami clearly distraught and crying at Med. This was a critical piece of evidence that pointed away from a main firefighter death. If a core member of Squad 3 or Engine 51 died on a call, the primary emotional impact would likely be centered on their close partners (like Severide or Herrmann). Violet’s deep sorrow, however, strongly echoed her prior trauma over the sudden death of her boyfriend, Chief Evan Hawkins. Her emotional state in the promo signaled that the loss would be a shock, possibly a civilian or a secondary character, and one she couldn’t save—a loss that re-traumatized her as a paramedic in charge. This context made Monica—the victim of a tragic, non-fire related call that 51 responded to—the most logical and devastating choice.
By checking off these three classic tropes—the future-based planning, the firehouse visit, and the emotional echo for a main character—the writers had subtly, but surely, signaled that Monica Pascal was the most likely casualty.
Part Two: Who Is in Peril Next? Analyzing the Current Threats
While Monica Pascal’s death has passed, the constant cast churn and danger surrounding Firehouse 51 means the speculation never truly ends. Looking ahead, two main characters are currently at the center of fan speculation for either an exit or a major, life-threatening crisis.
The End of an Era: The Confirmed Exits
It’s important to note that Chicago Fire often manages character departures through transfers or happy endings (like Casey and Brett). However, recent seasons have seen significant departures that are either permanent or leave the door open for a tragic outcome. The confirmed exits of Sam Carver (transferring to Denver) and Darren Ritter (taking a furlough to be with his boyfriend in New York) remove them from immediate casualty risk—a happy resolution that saves them from the death trope.
But one character who has faced near-fatal danger and whose future remains uncertain is a classic “fan favorite” who was left in grave peril: Jack Damon, Severide’s half-brother.
The Fan Favorite in Danger: Christopher Herrmann 🔥
Veteran firefighter and beloved character Christopher Herrmann has been an anchor of the series since the beginning. However, his future, and his very life, has been repeatedly placed in question. In a recent storyline, former Chief Wallace Boden returned to investigate a disastrous firefight that left “one of their own in peril,” strongly hinting at the gravity of the situation.
- The Isolation Clue: Promotional images and episode synopses for this storyline showed Herrmann isolated, battling a raging inferno alone. Isolation during a fire is the most dangerous scenario for a firefighter—it’s the universal red flag that precedes the fatal “Mayday” call.
- The Legacy Factor: Losing a character as established as Herrmann would create the kind of emotional, series-shifting earthquake that a long-running show often deploys to reset stakes. The show has a history of devastating losses (Shay, Otis, Hawkins). Herrmann’s death would be arguably the most devastating since Otis, causing ripple effects for Mouch, Cruz, Cindy, and the next generation of firefighters he mentored.
While that storyline ultimately saw another character (Jack Damon) in critical condition who survived, the focus on Herrmann’s leadership decisions and possible fault placed a massive target on his back. If a future storyline were to see a main character tragically die, the internal conflict and guilt storyline already built around Herrmann’s command could make him a logical, and tragic, casualty of a future mistake, or a noble sacrifice to save a younger member of 51.
Why Chicago Fire Will Keep Killing Off Characters 🎬
The continuous cycle of life-and-death drama is what keeps the show’s tension palpable and its ratings high. The deaths serve several vital storytelling functions:
- Reinforcing the Stakes: Every time a character dies, the show reminds the audience that the main cast, despite their heroism, is not immortal.
- Character Development: Loss is a powerful engine for change. Monica Pascal’s death created a complete emotional pivot for Chief Pascal, leading to new dynamics and power struggles at Firehouse 51. Similarly, any future major death will fuel new character arcs for the survivors.
- Preventing Stagnation: After so many seasons, character departures—whether tragic or peaceful—allow new faces and new perspectives (like Paramedic Lyla Novak) to enter the high-intensity world of the CFD.
For now, the fan favorite most tenuously clinging to safety is Christopher Herrmann, who has faced both physical peril and professional scrutiny. But as any Chicago Fire veteran knows, the moment a character feels too safe, the writers are likely setting them up for the biggest fall. Keep a close eye on the members of Engine 51; the next tragedy is almost certainly being foreshadowed right now.
