New reports about the viewership numbers for NCIS spinoffs NCIS: Origins and NCIS: Sydney have some fans concerned that the shows aren’t going to last much longer. NCIS launched international series NCIS: Sydney in 2023, and prequel series NCIS: Origins arrived in 2024. As of December, the TV Ratings Guide reports that the current numbers for both shows lean towards cancellation, and both shows are “in clear danger.”
“NCIS remains the powerful flagship series in one of CBS’s most important brands. Its spinoffs aren’t doing nearly well enough to be seen as viable replacements for it, so CBS still needs it around for at least another season,” they reported. “Given the value of the NCIS IP, and CBS’s penchant for spinning off their top titles (particularly this series, which has spawned six spinoffs), it won’t be much of a surprise to see NCIS joined by a new spinoff on the schedule next season, given that Origins and Sydney are both in clear danger after seasons of middling linear and multiplatorm ratings. When and if CBS graces us with another NCIS, they’ll want the hit franchise-starter as a launchpad.”
USTVDB reports that Origins is currently the 11th most popular show on CBS and 26th overall on TV, while Sydney is currently the 18th most popular show on CBS and 39th overall. The flagship series NCIS is currently the third most popular show on CBS and 13th overall. Screen Rant also noted that the two shows’ viewership numbers “don’t seem to bode well for their future.”
They did propose an idea to help Origins‘ chances for a renewal for next year: Vera Franks, played by Roma Maffia in the original series. She just reprised the role for the first time since debuting 12 years ago amid a crossover with the prequel that reportedly had the highest ratings for the show to date. “People who watch NCIS and learn more about Vera can start to be more interested in her history with the agency prompting then to check out NCIS: Origins,” the outlet proposed.
The NCIS franchise has long been television’s equivalent of a reliable heartbeat — steady, dependable, and seemingly unstoppable. For over two decades, the brand has survived cast exits, timeline shifts, and fierce competition. But now, cracks may finally be forming.
Recent viewership trends have ignited serious questions: Are NCIS: Origins and NCIS: Sydney at risk of cancellation? And more importantly, what do the numbers really tell us about their future?
Let’s break it all down — honestly, clearly, and without network spin.
The NCIS Franchise: A Television Powerhouse Under Pressure
For years, NCIS wasn’t just a show — it was a TV institution. Like comfort food you never get tired of, viewers kept coming back week after week. But television has changed, and audience habits have shifted faster than ever.
Streaming wars, shortened attention spans, and franchise fatigue are rewriting the rules. Even giants aren’t immune anymore.
What Is NCIS: Origins? A Bold Prequel Gamble
A Younger Gibbs, A Risky Concept
NCIS: Origins takes fans back in time, offering a glimpse into the early career of Leroy Jethro Gibbs. Prequels are always tricky — they walk a tightrope between nostalgia and redundancy.
While longtime fans were intrigued, casual viewers weren’t immediately sold.
Initial Ratings: Strong Curiosity, Weak Retention
The premiere pulled in respectable numbers, driven largely by curiosity. But here’s the problem: the audience didn’t stick around.
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Week-to-week ratings showed noticeable drops
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Younger demographics underperformed
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Social media buzz faded quickly
In today’s TV climate, that’s a red flag
Why NCIS: Origins Is Struggling to Find Its Identity
Too Familiar or Not Familiar Enough?
The show exists in a strange limbo. It’s not nostalgic enough for diehard fans, yet too dependent on franchise history for new viewers.
Think of it like a remix that doesn’t quite improve the original.
Competition Didn’t Help
Airing against heavy hitters — both on broadcast and streaming — hasn’t done Origins any favors. Viewers now have endless options, and loyalty isn’t guaranteed.
NCIS: Sydney — A Global Expansion with Local Challenges
Why the Australian Spinoff Seemed Promising
On paper, NCIS: Sydney looked like a smart move:
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International setting
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Fresh cast
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New storytelling opportunities
CBS clearly hoped to replicate the global success of franchises like CSI.
Reality Check: Ratings Tell a Different Story
While international audiences showed mild interest, U.S. viewership remained inconsistent. Domestic ratings matter most — and that’s where Sydney stumbled.
The Viewership Numbers Raising Alarm Bells
Live Ratings vs. Delayed Viewing
Here’s the harsh truth: networks still care deeply about live ratings. While streaming and delayed viewing help, they rarely save a show outright.
Both Origins and Sydney have:
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Declining live viewership
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Weak performance in the 18–49 demographic
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Minimal growth after premiere episodes
That combination is dangerous.
Why Demographics Matter More Than Ever
Older viewers alone can’t carry a show anymore. Advertisers want younger eyeballs, and neither spinoff has cracked that code effectively.
It’s like throwing a party — but only one age group shows up.
Fan Reaction: Passionate but Divided
Social Media Isn’t Always a Lifeline
Yes, fans are vocal. Yes, hashtags trend briefly. But online noise doesn’t always translate into sustainable viewership.
Petitions help morale — not renewal decisions.
Loyalty Fatigue Is Real
Even devoted NCIS fans admit they’re overwhelmed. With multiple versions airing across timelines and continents, burnout is inevitable.
Network Strategy: Too Much NCIS at Once?
Oversaturation Concerns
CBS may have leaned too hard into expansion. When everything feels like NCIS, nothing feels special anymore.
Scarcity creates value — and the franchise may have lost that edge.
Behind-the-Scenes Costs and Production Risks
Budget vs. Performance
International shoots, period settings, and ensemble casts aren’t cheap. If ratings don’t justify costs, executives won’t hesitate to pull the plug.
TV is art — but it’s also business.
Renewal Possibilities: Not All Hope Is Lost
Factors That Could Save the Shows
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Strong international licensing deals
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Improved streaming performance
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Schedule reshuffling
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Reduced episode orders
A limited renewal is still possible, especially for NCIS: Sydney.
What CBS Might Do Next
The Most Likely Outcomes
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One spinoff renewed, the other canceled
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Shortened final season
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Streaming-exclusive continuation
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Quiet cancellation announcement
Networks prefer soft landings over dramatic endings.
What This Means for the NCIS Franchise Long-Term
This moment feels like a crossroads. Either NCIS reinvents itself — or gracefully scales back.
Franchises don’t die overnight. They fade, refocus, and sometimes return stronger.
Should Fans Be Worried Right Now?
Concerned? Yes. Panicked? Not yet.
Cancellations aren’t guaranteed — but neither is safety. The coming months will be decisive.
Conclusion: The NCIS Future Hangs in the Balance
NCIS: Origins and NCIS: Sydney represent ambition — but ambition alone doesn’t guarantee survival. Viewership trends suggest caution, not confidence.
In a TV world where attention is currency, both shows are fighting uphill battles. Whether they adapt or disappear will depend on one thing: who keeps watching when the novelty fades.
For now, the verdict is still out — but the clock is ticking
