The chilling conclusion of the NCIS Season 22 finale left fans reeling. Mob boss Carla Marino (Rebecca De Mornay), Alden Parker’s long-time nemesis, definitively established herself as the ultimate threat by seemingly murdering Parker’s father in a calculated act of revenge. With Marino in the wind and Parker on a path of justified, vengeful rage, all signs pointed to the notorious cartel leader as the primary antagonist of NCIS Season 23.
However, in a classic NCIS twist that elevates the stakes from external danger to a terrifying internal conflict, CBS has teased a revelation: Carla Marino is NOT the true villain of Season 23.
The most dangerous obstacle facing the Major Case Response Team (MCRT) will be someone they trust, someone they answer to, and someone whose obstruction is far more paralyzing than any enemy on the streets: Director Leon Vance.
The External Threat vs. The Internal Obstruction
Carla Marino is a mob boss—a known, quantifiable enemy. She commands cartels, organizes heists involving nuclear material, and holds a personal grudge against Parker. The team knows her capabilities, and they can strategize to catch her. They will operate with heightened caution, guarding their flanks against her bloody tactics.
But an uncooperative, adversarial Director Vance (Rocky Carroll) presents a fundamentally more complex and destructive threat. Here is why the man sitting in the command chair is a more dangerous force than the woman on the run:
1. The Power of Command
Carla Marino can threaten their lives, but Vance can jeopardize their entire careers, missions, and the structure of justice they are trying to uphold. As the Director of NCIS, his word is law.
In Season 23, Vance is confirmed to adopt a “very by-the-book” approach, actively making it difficult for the MCRT to pursue their own leader’s case. This is a dramatic departure from the Vance fans have come to know—the Director who often bent the rules and provided “plausible deniability” for his team. His sudden, rigid stance forces the MCRT to operate outside their institutional authority, essentially making them rebels within their own agency. This internal resistance is far more difficult to combat than an external enemy.
2. The Weaponization of Trust
The team trusts Vance. They are loyal to him, and they owe him their allegiance. This established relationship is the most potent weapon he possesses.
- Marino: Causes suspicion and paranoia.
- Vance: Causes internal friction and a complete breakdown of trust.
When the team tries to rally around Parker—who, as showrunner Steven D. Binder teased, will be “destabilized and out for revenge”—Vance will stand in opposition. This forces the team to choose between their grieving leader and their official superior, creating conflict among the team members themselves. A fractured team is an easy target, and the MCRT’s internal trust issues could lead to mistakes far deadlier than any bullet from the Nexus Cartel.
3. Personal Hypocrisy and Emotional Stakes
Vance, of all people, understands the pain Parker is feeling. His own wife, Jackie, was tragically murdered in a high-profile attack years ago. His personal experience should compel him to support Parker’s pursuit of justice.
His inexplicable shift to a cold, bureaucratic stance forces the audience, and the team, to ask: Why? This unknown factor—the “mysterious reasons” the showrunners have teased—turns Vance into an enigma. Is he compromised? Is he being blackmailed? Is he under pressure from a higher, unseen power?
This lack of transparency and his perceived hypocrisy make him a far more emotionally resonant villain. Carla Marino only hurts Parker; Vance, by his actions, is poised to hurt the entire team’s sense of morality and security within their own home.
Alden Parker’s Dark Turn: A Collision Course
The conflict with Vance is precisely what will fuel the season’s central arc: Parker’s descent into vengeance.
Following his father’s murder, Parker will transform from the “calm and collected” leader to one driven by a “vengeful rage.” This personal, dark arc mirrors the early seasons of NCIS, where Leroy Jethro Gibbs was driven by his own wife and daughter’s murder. Parker’s change in temperament is set to put him on a direct collision course with Vance’s newly “by-the-book” mandate.
The ensuing narrative is expected to be a dramatic showdown:
- Parker’s Team: Vigorously supporting their traumatized friend and leader, potentially resorting to Gibbs-esque rule-breaking.
- Director Vance: Shutting down investigations, withholding resources, and demanding official protocol be followed, regardless of the emotional stakes.
This dynamic essentially creates an internal cold war where the team has to investigate their external enemy while simultaneously evading their own boss. It’s a genius narrative maneuver that raises the stakes higher than simply catching a mobster.
The Broader Implications for NCIS
By positioning Vance as the obstacle, NCIS is returning to a theme that defined its golden age: the struggle for justice against the bureaucracy. The show is at its best when the team fights not just criminals, but the red tape, political pressure, and compromises of the federal system.
This central, internal conflict promises:
- A Darker Tone: Parker’s instability and the constant threat of internal punishment will give Season 23 a grittier feel, a welcome callback for long-time viewers.
- Stronger Team Bonds: The team will have to band together tighter than ever to protect Parker and circumvent the Director, strengthening their core relationships.
- A New Character Dynamic: The introduction of Parker’s sister, Navy Vice Admiral Harriet Parker (Nancy Travis), an “official” version of Parker who grew up as the “good kid,” will further complicate the situation, providing Vance with a potential ally or a new source of Navy-related pressure.
While Carla Marino remains a clear and present danger who must be caught, the revelation that Director Leon Vance will be the biggest threat to the MCRT’s operation, unity, and pursuit of justice fundamentally redefines the narrative. The enemy within the Navy Yard, shielded by the power of his office and his “mysterious reasons,” is an antagonist capable of causing systemic damage that a simple mob boss can only dream of. Season 23 is shaping up to be a fight for the soul of NCIS itself.
